My new Defensive Stat:
I've been charting the Royals this year with a defensive stat I created. It's not Bill James worthy but it's kind of cool. How many runs does a fielder really cost or save a team? This is the question I want to answer in real runs not projections based on other numbers. I of course don't see every game so it is based on what I do wittness which is more than the average fan. The best way to score is at the ballpark, followed by TV and some radio. A few times I will score something off a newpaper account the next day, if I can see the ing played out play by play. A recent example is Emil Brown was clearly identified in 4/28 game as playing 2 balls poorly in to doubles that accounted for a 4 run Oakland ing. I could see the play by play and determine exactly how many runs Brown cost them.
Defensive Runs Created (need a better name)
A fielder is given a + point for every play that goes beyone an average effort and helps his team prevent a run (baserunner/advancement etc).
A fielder is given a + point for every run that is prevented from scoring due to this play by recreating the ing (some projection needed)
A fielder is given a + point any time his exceptional play ends an ing
A fielder is given a - point any time he fails to execute average expectations of a defensive player
A fielder is given a - point for every run his defensive failure leads to
I'd say that there are 3-5 avg. plays per game per team that fall into these categories. Obviously any error qualifies, as well as poor range plays and great range plays, hustle plays and lack there of can factor in, thinking errors such as throwing to wrong base. I track all of these and chart them as a total number. Some positions prove to be more critical than others due to the amount of plays they are involved in. SS 2b 3b CF. I've also noticed that a particuarly good or bad fielder become more prominant and noticable. Doug Mienkiewicz swallows a lot of bad throws that stand out. In past years I may not have noticed plays Matt Stairs didn't save that would have gone down as reflecting badly on others via errors on Teahan and Berroa etc. Reggie Sanders has yet to register a particuarly good or bad play all month. He simply appears to make the plays he should. Emil Brown is an almost daily event in the other corner partly because his play stands out so visiably. Even his good plays ( covering lots of ground and making a catch in front of the wall) may actually be ordinary for another fielder so I try to maintain a high standard for what makes a good or bad defensive play. It's clearly a judgment stat but a judgment that 90% of knowledgable baseball fans watching would usually agree on. What is key is not just the initial fielding error or misplay but how many runs directly scored or did not score off it. That is the interesting part as it measures the real effect of a particular play. Here are some game examples:
4/3/06 at the park M Grudzielanek diving stab of a line drive over 2nd +1, Mienkiewicz great stretch on bad throw +1, Angel Berroa jogged on a slow gb up the middle -1 ( here's a judgment call but clearly an issue I've seen with Berroa at times. He does not always put full effort into all plays but at other times will flat out dive for a ball- several fans in my section mentioned the same sentiment), M Teahan -bad throw -1. None of these plays lead to a run or likely prevented a run so they were only rated a 1.
4/7 at the park Angel Berroa missed the tag on a sb when throw beat the runner, run scored due to this play -2, E Brown ran into Dejesus in CF on a routine fly causing it to be missed, lead to 1 run scoring and -2 score, M Grudzielanek bobbled throw on sure DP costing the 2nd out -1, Angel Berroa great stop to start a DP +1 (note not all DP are considered exceptional- many are routine and not scored-this 1 was special, Mienkiewicz saved another bad Teahan throw with a scoop +1. Mark Teahan great hustle on a bloop single that fell in no mans land, he made a full slide to retrieve the ball and prevent a 2nd base +1
4/10 TV Paul Bako started a DP on a pickoff at 2nd +2, E Brown again ran into Dejesus on routine fly ball costing a run -2, (note neither of these plays by Brown showed up in the boxscore as an error). Mienkiewicz 3 base error on a grounder with bases loaded -4 1 for error and 3 for the runs allowed. Minky is a great fielder but this is exactly the kind of play I want to chart. He made a doozy of an error here and in reality he cost the Royals 4 runs.
4/17 TV Mark Teahan bad throw on routine grounder cost 1 run -2, Mark Teahan turns a bunt into DP +1
4/18 TV Mienkiewicz great sliding catch on foul +1, Berroa error on routine gb with 2 outs - lead to 3 run ing and a Royal loss -4, John Buck dropped the ball on sb attempt -1 ( I may not charge Buck for just a sb if I felt like he had no shot but here he dropped the ball).
4.25 TV Mienkiewicz great stop saves a run+2, Shane Costa sliding catch +1, Elarton pickoff +1, E Brown terrible throw home into the ground on a shallow hit -2
4/30 Mienkiewicz great diving stop to initiate a 3-6-1 DP +3 saved a potential big ing, caught a foul by diving into the tarp +1, E Brown shows good range running catch into the wall +1, A Sisco doesn't cover 1rst after Minky made a great stop and it could of ended the ing lead to a run -2, E German flyball hits him in the head with 2 outs and 2 on 3base error - 3 (1 run not charged as it would have scored as a SF if he caught it). On 4/19 German got a -4 for a similar play.
As you can see it's far easier to track runs that do score as oppossed to runs that might have scored. So a minus rating over all may be common- we shall see as season goes on.
April Royals scores
P Bako +2
J Buck -1
A Berroa -7
E German -7 in OF -2 infield
T Graffanino -5 at 1b (1 play)
Gruds +1
Minky +3
Stairs no plays
Teahan -3 I think his shoulder is hurting, really struggling with throws
E Brown -10 he cost us 10 runs in 1 month- how many did he drive in?
S Costa +1
DDejesus 0 am aware of some positive plays when he was healthy but could not record them per my criteria
Reggie Sanders- 0 steady steady steady 0 is a good number
Sweeney 0 no plays
Pitchers Elarton +1 Sisco -2
as a team -26 we have a defensive rating of negative 26 in 1month an average of 1 bad play more than a good play per game
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