What to Do about Dwindling Offense in MLB?

The new commissioner is on it, don't allow defensive shifts, put a clock on the pitchers, lower the mound, sure why not. I think defensive shifts are definitively affecting offense, it's a short term technological information advantage and the solution is obvious with no need for league interference. Hitters need to beat the shift end of story. The thing no one is talking about is the take over of specialized pitching. We have gone way past the specialization of closers, loogys the 7 inning starter. we now have pitchers assigned by inning to go 1 inning and throw max velocity. Wade Davis you are this trend. 7 innings? 6 innings? forget about it starters give me 5 or even 4. This requires a 12-13 man staff, 9 position players leaves either a 3 or 4 man bench. In the NL because they have to pinch hit for pitchers it's a 5 man bench. For me 5 man bench is a minimum needed to have a full strategic array to a manager. Current AL benches are not designed for run production, but for run prevention. Either the bench has a few defensive specialists or multi-position guys who have no value except being able to look functional at multiple positions- thus they exist to allow for more relievers and prevent runs.

A four man bench (there are some 3 man benches) has to have a catcher, a utility infielder (often not known for hitting) 1 outfielder and somebody else - shockingly often not an offensive player often an opposite platoon to a starter with an extreme split. In the post before my recreation of game 1 2014 season KC-DET-  the Royals had
back up catcher Brett Hayes- no bat skills whatsoever
                          Pedro Ciriaco- utility man can play 2b, SS, 3b and can't hit
                          Jarrod Dyson - LH defensive outfielder who can also pinch run and hit a little versus                           RH
                          our hero Danny Valencia- 3b platoon slugger vs LH and was often forced to play positions he had no skill whatsoever at like 2b.

The Royals bench with at least 2 usable offensive players including a defensive replacement and pinch runner actually is one of the better AL benches. We traded Valencia later so we could get Jayson Nix's .120 batting average (but plays almost every position) but I digress,

Here are some other opening day 2014 benches
Det: B Holiday, Don Kelly, Andrew Romine, Tyler Collins
Oak: D Norris, D Barton,  N Punto, S Fuld
Bal: S Clevenger, R Flaherty, S Lombardozzi, D Lough
LAA: H Conger, C Cowgil, J McDonald, I Stewart

Those are the playoff teams. From those benches I count 1 true bat Norris a catcher, maybe D Lough but not last year. These benches of the best teams are almost purely designed to prevent runs not score them.

If Moneyball  taught us to value and take advantage of what's undervalued by the league whether that's on base % in the 90's or what followed through the years in my read the current inefficiency that teams are missing is returning to a strong bench with offensive options. The Royals have some options. The other problem with a 4 man bench is you are constantly afraid to play your 1 offensive card too early meaning the other manager can load up and use his pen to neutralize your lineup. That's why I pinch hit for Moustakas in the 5th and Yost couldn't pull the trigger then because he has nothing left on his bench, maybe he uses a pinch hitter in the 9th but can't use up your last catcher, that's not smart baseball and so it goes so you do nothing and give the advantage to the defense.

In 1985 playoffs where the Royals lucked into a championship they first had to get by a very good Toronto Blue Jay team. There was no luck in that 7 game series Dick Howser simply out managed Bobby Cox. The Blue Jays were a heavy platoon team (Mullinicks and G Iorg  etc). Howser made the inverse strategy play that I executed in the season opener yesterday for the same reasons, make a disadvantage your advantage, protect your teams weaknesses. The Royals had a fine starting staff but Howser routinely pulled them early in the series to force a decision on Cox, "Accept the platoon disadvantage for several innings or pinch hit now and face it later." The added advantage our closer Dan Quisenberry struggled against LH batters. Howser was clearing a path for his closer.
Game 1: C Leibrant (LH)  pulled 3rd inning RH S Farr on
Game 3 B Saberhagan (RH) out in 5th (he won the Cy Young) B Black in (LH)
Game 6 Gubisca (RH) out 6th Black in
Game 7 Saberhagan out 4th Leibrandt (LH) in

Current MLB dynamics beg for a manager to be the 1 team with a potent bench and shorter pen. 14/11 or even 15/10 for the very bold. To do this relievers must be prepared as multi inning pitchers 2 -3 innings and set it up as a series rotation almost. Colorado briefly and  halfheartedly tried this a few years ago but had poor pitchers-poor result. They had starters going 4 innings with 2 pre-determined relievers. Results weren't magically there and the heat- second guessing lead to abandoning it. It would not have to be even that elaborate, you want starters to go deep but rotate middle guys, keep closer as is but lengthen to some 2 inning saves, and have 1 long/swing man ala  Baltimore of the Weaver era, In fact that role would be perfect for the best pitching prospect in organization, fewer but controlled innings still could be high impact and prepare for rotation next season (Johan Santana) for Royals that would be D Duffy role last year or Ventura goal 90-130 innings.

Shifting et all factors in the offensive decline, but what I see the biggest factor is the devaluing of offensive  role players and the emphasis on run prevention in almost all personnel decisions.

Once Again Strat-O-Matic Illuminates

I am now preparing the celebration of the 2014 Royals miracle run 2 ways. First I will celebrate the past by re-creating the 2014 season via Strat-O-Matic. Cards have arrived, I will use the as played method. This means use the exact rosters each game that was used in real life. I can also use the exact lineups if I chose. I may start that way but the point is to add my own touches to see if I can get more from the Royals. This will be difficult when by definition they have over achieved already. The 1985 Strat Royals were virtually impossible to duplicate, this team a tad easier but still the numbers won't add up I'm thinking.

The second project will use the Out of The Park Baseball game being delivered in a week or so. This game allows one to play the up coming 2015 season based on  PECOTA projections from Baseball Perspective. I start with the spring training Royals roster and go from there. I can play as the GM, the manager or both. I will definitely be the GM and will start with hiring my own manager (not named Ned Yost - I know win the AL title get canned but Ned you suck). This game not only covers the major league roster but the entire organization at all levels- serious shit OOTP. I want to not only improve the team but I want to experiment with new strategies to take advantage of weaknesses I see in the game at major league level. This leads me to the subject of my first observation on 2015 MLB.

I played the Royals first game from 2014 last night on the road versus the Tigers, James Shields vs. Justin Verlander just as it was played last year. Both starters got hit hard early and got pulled before the 5th, Miggy hit 2 out off Shields and Torii Hunter hit a 3 runner. The Royals pop gun offense hit Verlander hard with singles and doubles (Billy Butler did get a solo) and when Drew Smyley came in for Verlander in the top of the 5th with runners on second and third 2 outs to face Mike Moustakas Royals down 5-4 I realized I was going to do something completely logical and in no way would ever have happened in a real situation in current modern day baseball. I pinch hit. First game of year 5th inning 1 run game, regular at bat- too soon? panic move? not realistic? Balderdash I say.

First I'll give the rationale for this particular game then I will broaden this to baseball as a whole.
1. The Royals don't have a big offense, Ned Yost would agree with this, this presents a great chance to score in mid innings with an historical great pen ready to close it down. This might be their last best chance to score.
2. Drew Smyly is a tough LH pitcher who later would be in the rotation.
3. Mike Moustakas is a LH batter and quite poor against LH pitching]
4. The Royals have a thin bench as all MLB teams do these day, Brett Hayes, Pedro Ciriaco, Jarrod Dyson and Danny Valencia. Hayes and Ciriaco are useless, Dyson also LH but they have 1 guy who hits LH pitching well, in fact his main job was to platoon with Moose until he was given away for a bag of beans known as Liam Hendricks. Valencia for Moose makes a lot of sense. The Tigers just brought Smyly in and are not going to go RH this early. If it fails Valencia is not as good versus RH pitchers and could be a liability later in game but he's not embarrassing versus RH. Moose is a much better fielder.

I pinch hit Moose files a grievance with his agent, Valencia flies out and the cat calls come. That historic pen does shut the Tigers down the rest of the way and in the 7th Billy Butler hits that tater to tie it 5-5. In the top of the 9th against Joe Nathan Alex Gordon walks, Salvy Perez doubles, runners 2nd  and 3rd with 1 out Valencia up versus the RH. Valencia doubles for the lead, Holland closes Royals 1-0 Tigers 0-1.  Even in the worst case scenario of the pinch hit decision it worked out. I would note Valencia also allowed a base hit that Moose would have gotten to.

My mentality with this Royals team is to actually embrace the Yost mantra but go much harder into it than he would, Take every base you can get, take risks and when chances are there assume there will not be another one-do something. Yost got a lot of props for the Oakland wild card game. The Royals ran crazy etc. but he had nothing to lose at that point. After that the Royal magic continued but not with any help from the manager. He went very conservative in every series after that. He appeared to not want to be singled out or second guessed. He found the book, played by it and prayed. Ned Yost is a bad game manager.

Now for what this game revealed (or confirmed for me) the broader problem with offense in MLB  will follow in the next post.